We really don't know who's going to win the election, info on polls

[punch]

I found this very interesting, this is taken from a website I've been following since last summer. This guy is keeping tally on all the national polls and keeps an updated average and projection based on all the data he can find. He posted this on Saturday.

His current projections as of last night: http://www.electionprojection.com/elections2004.html

October 23, 2004

Polling: a remarkably inexact science

Do we know anything about the outcome of this election? To give us an idea just how speculatory the business of polling is, check out the wild variations of some recent polling results:

Michigan
Survey USA (10/20/04): Bush 44% Kerry 51% margin: Kerry by 7%
Detroit News (10/19/04): Bush 47% Kerry 44% margin: Bush by 3%
Variation: 10 points

New Mexico
Mason-Dixon (10/18/04): Bush 49% Kerry 44% margin: Bush by 5%
Zogby (10/18/04): Bush 44% Kerry 54% margin: Kerry by 10%
Variation: 15 points

Ohio
Ohio University (10/21/04): Bush 43% Kerry 49% margin: Kerry by 6%
Opinion Dynamics (10/18/04): Bush 49% Kerry 44% margin: Bush by 5%
Variation: 11 points

Oregon
Riley Research (10/13/04): Bush 48% Kerry 43% margin: Bush by 5%
Amer. Research Group (10/12/04): Bush 44% Kerry 50% margin: Kerry by 6%
Variation: 11 points

Tennessee
Survey USA (10/19/04): Bush 60% Kerry 38% margin: Bush by 22%
Zogby (10/18/04): Bush 50% Kerry 48% margin: Bush by 2%
Variation: 20 points

Amazing, isn't it? With the possible exception of Riley Research, about whom I know nothing, all the surveys listed were produced by highly regarded polling firms. These results just go to show that we'll know very little for sure until November 2.

[2001Ponypower]

Boy I wish I had that kinda time to cover politics...of course if they were paying me for it, heck I'd make the time.

Like Punch's title says, we still have no clue who'll win the election...it's like the World Series or Nascar! It's worth paying attention next Tuesday.

[Stormwalker]

I really hope someone wins this election by a landslide, because it is going to be a mess if it ends up being close.

[2001Ponypower]

I really hope someone wins this election by a landslide, because it is going to be a mess if it ends up being close.

Oh well, I'd rather have the Supreme Court decide our election again Can't leave it to us regular idiots!

[SFC]

I could've told you that... we already discussed this in stats class. Besides, with the way the electoral college is set up the polls mean nothing unless it's done on a state by state basis, and even then, only if one candidate is winning by an ENORMOUS margin in the given state. The polls are at best a +-3% margin of error. Then if you take into account that the pollers aren't allowed to call people on cellphones they're leaving out a huge demographic of young voters who, from what I can tell, will have a much larger impact this year than any other year (course the last assumption is more of a personal opinion, young people could very well continue to be lazy/not care this year like in the past).

[SFC]

Oh well, I'd rather have the Supreme Court decide our election again Can't leave it to us regular idiots!

why do you think bush didn't want to name which one of his selections he thought were bad on the supreme court in that debate? :hah:

[68GTO]

What is really being depicted here, besides a close race, is the difference in polling methodology and questions. The best bet is to stick to one or two polls and watch them as their techniques are consistent from week to week.

Many polls mentioned above use "likely voters"
Some use "registered voters"

These two do NOT equate.

SFC brings up a good point in that the cell phone usage is higher than ever as a main phone number. Make sure you get your vote in. IF you do not and your candidate loses, you have nobody but yourself to blame.

[lilstang5O]

its a no brainer! Bush will win! Who the hell is Kerry, jsut some pussy who couldn't catch a damn football! Anyways whats up with gas prices? $2.09 a Gallon omg!

[Darkness]

I know but i am not telling

[lilstang5O]

ok we'll keep it quiet SHHH

[SFC]

its a no brainer! Bush will win! Who the hell is Kerry, jsut some pussy who couldn't catch a damn football! Anyways whats up with gas prices? $2.09 a Gallon omg!

Well... basically because the oil companies are to the point they can work us as they please. My guess is it'll only be a matter of time before they're broken up like ala John Rockefeller Standard Oil circa 1911.

It's one of those things where there's supposed to be competition keeping the prices low... so there's no government interaction. But it would seem at least, that they have an unspoken no competition agreement among the few major providers left in the US.



this site gives a decent rundown:

http://www.globalpolicy.org/socecon/tncs/mergers/oil.htm

[1QUICK4]

we still have no clue who'll win the election...it's like the World Series or Nascar!

It all comes down to the the last two minutes LOL

Make sure you get your vote in. IF you do not and your candidate loses, you have nobody but yourself to blame.

No shit, Just fucking VOTE!

[lilstang5O]

It all comes down to the the last two minutes LOL


Just like our ebay bids! come's down to the final second allmost!!

[jjhirsch]

ya and how will bush help that i mean look at how we are doing now crapy to ok and keeping him there how will that help. bush took 300 and some days off and clinton took 130 around there for the 8 years he was in office hmm i wonder who works hard i dont think bush works at all he has every one do it for him.

we need someone new that will work. that is really what i think we need new i mean if bush did good and we were stong i would vote him because he is keeping it strong but he isnt. gas went up because of the war with bush and i mean we really dont need that many people over there and it hasnt changed alot in the last year. the econ is not really going up and since 911 it still isnt close to ware it was at.